Maybe I can forecast some winners and losers... first, the large rockets.

• Falcon 9: winner today, winner tomorrow, since nobody will catch their low costs except maybe Neutron.
• New Glenn: maybe a secondary winner, but won’t beat Falcon.
• Vulcan: I originally said survivor only, then I started to think winner, now I doubt it.
• OmegA: loser (yup, cancelled).
• Antares: loser, but might survive.
• SLS: loser.
• Starship: should eventually win big, but not in the short term.
• Ariane: survivor.
• Skylon: I thought some variant could eventually end up a real winner in the very long term, but no.
• Irtysh: a temporary semi-winner, maybe, then a limited governmental role, assuming it ever flies at all.
• Angara: looking like a loser so far.
• Proton updates: loser (came true shortly after adding this section... it and Soyuz will retire with honor, like Atlas and Delta).
• Long March 2-4: survivor, eventually retiring with honor.
• Long March 6 and 7: semi-winner for a limited time, then settling into a survivor governmental role.
• Long March 5, 9, and 10: probably governmental only, I’m guessing survivor.
• Long March 8 and 12: at least one winner.
• Amur: winner (by Russian standards) if they get reusability to work.
• H: survivor, governmental role.
• LVM3: survivor (RLV could be a winner).
• Neutron: winner.

Now, small rockets.

• Pegasus and Minotaur: loser (yeah, Northrop’s Orbital Sciences branch is cooked).
• LauncherOne: I previously said they’d “look like a winner for a while“ but “may fail to make profit.” Now they’ve lost everything a company can lose.
• Vector: I previously said winner... they had me fooled.
• Alpha: I thought “has a fair chance”, but now the odds look slim.
• Vega: short term winner, long term loser.
• Electron: winner, at least for a good while.
• Astra: I previously said “winner if they can get reliable and keep costs low enough, which looks like it’ll be tough”... then I said loser and now they’ve lost.
• Terran: loser.
• Rokot and START: losers.
• Kuaizhou, Long March 11, Ceres, and the like: short term winners, long term losers.
• PSLV: eventually will retire with honor when something better replaces it.
• SSLV: survivor, I guess.
• Miura: could be a winner, but looking shaky.
• Haas: loser, because these guys are bozos.
• Neptune: loser.
• Phantom Express: could be a big winner? Nope, they gave up on it. Too bad — I thought the idea had potential.
• Shavit, Safir, Simorgh, Unha, Chollima: governmental role, eventual loser.
• Nuri: survivor, eventual loser due to privatization.
• VLS and MLS: loser.
• Tronador: loser.
• New Line: looked winner-like for a while, but they didn’t follow through.
• Prime: I previously said possible winner, but... no. Loser.
• Skyrora, Eris, Hanbit, Hapith: losers.
• RFA, Spectrum: one of them might be a survivor.
• LandSpace and maybe Space Pioneer: decent chance at some winner-hood.
• Nova: winner if their heat shield works... but that’s a big if.
• all the me-too small launch companies that take another four years to reach orbit: losers.

Finally, some broad overall trends.

• Reusability: big winner.
• Solid fuel in general: loser for main stages, survivor in secondary roles.
• Hypergolic fuel in general: survivor in secondary roles.
• Small payload capacity: winner, but only for at most three companies.
• Gigantic payload capacity: eventual winner? But not any time soon.
• USA: winner.
• China: winner, but maybe not long term.
• Russia; loser, even before they alienated themselves from the world economy.
• EU: survivor.
• India: winner.
• Whoever manages to someday lift payloads without a rocket: winner.

(In another how-did-I-do update, Northrop bounced back from cancelling the Omega by being awarded a big contract to build new replacement ICBMs. Who thought we needed new ICBMs??)